AN ARMA MODELLING APPROACH ON INFANT MORTALITY RATE IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This paper considers infant mortality in Nigeria. A time series plot of the infant mortality rate (IMR) showing trends and seasonality has been considered. A stochastic model that predicts the mortality rate of infant has been constructed. In the work, a non- stationary time series is first converted to a stationary series by obtaining the initial difference of the time series data and then constructing the time series plot. The Augmented Dickey Fuller Test was also determined, a 5 years prediction from 2022-2026 has been forecasted. The work suggest that there is a declining consistent pace over the years and the data used for the analysis is from World Bank and the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Childhood Mortality Estimation (UN-IGME)