A Mathematical Model of the Effects of Social Distancing and Community Lockdown on the Spread of Covid-19 Pandemic in Nigeria

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by a new strain of severe acute respiratory
syndrome of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virus has spread from Wuhan city in China in December 2019 to no fewer than 200 countries as at June 2020 and still counting. Nigeria experienced a rapid spread of the virus amidst weak health system. In this study, we propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 which is designed and used to analyze the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model incorporates the compartments and parameters regarding COVID-19 in Nigeria, and was analyzed and parameterized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). This was adapted to assess the community-wide impact of two control and mitigation strategies adopted in Nigeria. Numerical simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria with moderate levels of socialdistancing and community lockdown strategy in the entire nation. The model was able to analyze the stability of the disease-free equilibrium
solution of the model and key parameters of the model were estimated. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to investigate the influence of the parameters in curtailing the disease. The model shows that COVID-19 can be effectively managed or eliminated in Nigeria if both control measures were systematically implemented to limit the basic reproduction number to less than unity