MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR SOCIAL DISTANCING IN MITIGATING THE SPREAD OF COVID-19

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of social distancing in mitigating the spread of Covid-19 using height measurement data. A prediction Matheatical model was proposed with which the probability of Covid-19 spread was computed, using social distancing values. The model utilized information from the detection phase of Covid-19 prediction model. case fatality ratio (CFR) of Covid-19 was computed and compared it with that of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The graphical analysis of the epicenter records of world health organization (WHO) regions was obtained. The analysis revealed that as the social distancing values increases, the probability of spread reduces. The CFR of Covid-19 up to 28th April 2020 is 6.94%, compared to the CFR of SARS-CoV (9.6%) and MERS-CoV(34.4%). This analysis revealed that although the CFR of Covid-19 is lower than those of SARS and MERS, the impact of Covid-19 is much greater due to the number of confirmed cases and deaths. This research affirmed that though the CFR of an epidemic could be low, but if the spread is geometric, which could turn exponential due to negligence in all ramifications by world leaders, the effect would be catastrophic to humanity